Madison Keys vs Elena Rybakina Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Rybakina's recent second serve success stands at 44.07%, slightly surpassing Keys at 41.34%. Does this offer her an edge? It contributes to match prediction accuracy.
• In return games, Keys performs better, winning 50.67% of second serve points compared to Rybakina's 47.75%. This could be crucial in head-to-head matchups.
• First serve return points favor Keys as well, outperforming Rybakina with 30.17% over 26.48%. Could this be a decisive factor?
• Under pressure, Keys has a marginally superior breakpoint save rate of 55.46% compared to Rybakina's 54.41%, indicating slightly more resilience.
• Looking at overall performance, Keys has won 74.55% of her matches in the past year, slightly higher than Rybakina's 70%.
• Both players excel on grass, with Rybakina at 73% and Keys at 71%. Their least favorite surfaces reveal more disparity: Hard for Rybakina at 68%, and Indoor Hard for Keys at 53%.
• Both competitors have mainly played on the Masters series, but Keys holds a better win rate of 69.57% compared to Rybakina’s 61.54%.
• Direct head-to-head matches have seen Keys ahead with 3 wins to Rybakina’s 2, although the set count is closer with Keys at 7 and Rybakina at 6.
• In pressure moments, like deciding sets and tiebreaks, Keys leads, having won more in both scenarios.
• Keys has been playing against higher-ranked opponents, averaging a rank of 44.82, compared to Rybakina who averages 66.07.
• If the match goes to a deciding set, Keys’ recent record is more favorable, having won 79% of such sets versus Rybakina’s 50%.
• Rybakina's breakpoint conversion is at 30.59%, while Keys shows a slightly better conversion rate of 35.82%.

Editorial Prediction (August 13, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match between Rybakina and Keys is promising to be a close contest, given their recent form and past head-to-head encounters. Keys' slightly superior performance on return games and under pressure situations could turn out to be decisive in this matchup.

Though both have excellent records on preferred surfaces, the edge on hard courts goes to Keys, evidenced by her past win in their most recent encounter at the Australian Open.

Including recent form, Keys' ability to convert breakpoints more efficiently and her resilience in deciding sets make her the slight favorite. With a higher winning percentage against stronger opponents recently, Madison Keys is likely to emerge victorious in their upcoming clash.